The Community Research Collaborative Blog

American Community Survey Age Data: Diamonds or Dust?

By: John Besl

In my last blog post, I examined disparities in estimates of total population produced by the U.S. Census Bureau for several municipalities in the Cincinnati Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA).  The focus was on population estimates coming from the American Community Survey (ACS) for periods of one, three, or five years.  The perfunctory conclusion was that ACS cannot be relied upon to produce stable population estimates, especially for small areas.  In this month’s space, I want to dive a little deeper into ACS estimates, spotlighting recent estimates of the age distribution in many of the same municipalities featured in the February post. 

 

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Indiana Graduation Rates on the Rise

By: Geoff Zimmerman

Earlier this year, we looked at high school graduation rates as a key outcome that we track to better understand how many students are successfully completing high school. That post didn’t look specifically at high school graduation rates in the Indiana portion of our service area, so I want to take the opportunity here to explore what is happening across Indiana, and specifically in Dearborn and Ohio counties.

 

 

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Overlapping Array of Population Estimates Create a Fog of Data

By: John Besl

In September 2010, the U.S. Census Bureau issued their Vintage 2009 series of population estimates for cities and villages across the country.  In the 17 months since then, the Census Bureau has released several more numbers representing total population, including the “official” 2010 Census count, for these same areas.  For larger municipalities such as Cincinnati, the Census Bureau has now issued eight separate total population figures since September 2010 for various time frames covering the latter part of the 2001-2010 decade.  Sound confusing?  Well, it certainly can be – but in this post I’ll try to explain briefly where all these numbers are coming from, and make comparisons with illustrations featuring local municipalities. 

 

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Is There Any Good Economic News?

By: Janet Harrah

The economic news of doom and gloom over the past few years is well documented.  High rates of unemployment, declining home sales and prices, declining tax revenues, rising deficit spending, rising gas prices and Europe’s debt crisis are among the negative news of recent years.  Now that the recession is officially over is there any good economic news?  The answer to that question depends on your point of view.  The economy has been improving over the past year, but full recovery is still some distance in the future.  So it’s the age old question:  is the glass half full or half empty?  In this posting, we are going to take the point of view of the half full glass.

 

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Schools as Centers of Community

By: Geoff Zimmerman

In 2001, the Cincinnati city school district (CPS) adopted a policy that all schools will engage their communities in improving student achievement: “As centers in the community, the schools and their partners should foster strong collaboration, set high expectations, embrace diversity, and share accountability for results.”  Over ten years later, CPS Community Learning Centers act as hubs for community services, providing access for students and families to health, safety and social services, as well as recreational, educational, and cultural opportunities.

 

 

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A Dynamic Picture of Population Change and Aging

By: John Besl

On December 1, United Way of Greater Cincinnati hosted a program titled “Demographics Forum: Strategic View of Our Region’s Changing Demographics for Nonprofit and Civic Organizations.”  The keynote speaker, Dr. Warren Brown of Cornell University, covered multiple topics related to the demographic composition of the Cincinnati region, including our age composition and how it compares to the United States as a whole.

In the course of his talk, Dr. Brown went on to display a few charts depicting age composition for the Cincinnati metro area and selected counties from the 2010 Census, as well as the two previous national headcounts.  The charts showed a dynamic picture of population change and aging over the past two decades.  In this post, I want to review those charts while examining some other jurisdictions in the metro area, and adding some commentary.

 

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Poverty Measurement Redefined

By: John Besl

In my October post, I reported on the latest national findings on income and poverty from the Current Population Survey.  The nation’s official poverty rate increased from 14.3% in 2009 to 15.1% in 2010, while the number of people in poverty grew by 2.6 million.  As grim as those numbers may sound, many researchers believe that the official poverty measure, which was developed in the 1960s, understates the true extent of deprivation in the United States. 

 

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Education, Income, and Health

By: Geoff Zimmerman

Earlier this year, United Way led the development of Bold Goals for our region.  The Bold Goals builds on the Agenda for Community Impact by developing bold, but attainable goals in the areas of education (preparing children, youth, and young adults to succeed in school and life), income (ensuring individuals and families achieve financial sustainability), and health (helping individuals live quality lives & achieve maximum health and independence).

In addition, United Way has just launched a new Call for Investment process that will determine its investments in community and agency partners for the 2013-2015 time period. To support this process, and better understand the Bold Goal impact areas, United Way’s Research Council developed three short regional assessments that show, at a fairly high level, how things stand in our community in the three Bold Goal areas.

In this post, I’ll explore some of the data and highlights from the Regional Assessment for Education and the interconnections between the areas.

 

 

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How Many Jobs Are Needed Over the Next Year to Keep the Unemployment Rate in Cincinnati Steady?

By: Janet Harrah

The Cincinnati economy needs to create approximately 1,000 jobs per month over the next year to maintain its current unemployment rate.  The number of jobs needed to keep the unemployment rate steady is dependent on: (1) the population growth of persons 16 years and over and (2) the rate of labor force participation.  In the Cincinnati area, between 2005 and 2010, the population 16 years and over increased on average, 1.2% each year.  During this same period, the labor force participation rate (LFPR) has averaged 67.3% (see Table 1).  The LFPR represents the proportion of the population 16 years and over that is in the labor force. 

If the average 1.2% growth continues, the population 16 years and over will increase by about 19,700 (see Table 2) in 2012.  With the labor force participation rate at 67.3% then an additional 13,200 people will join the Cincinnati labor force.  To maintain the area’s current 9.1% unemployment rate, 12,000 of those individuals joining the labor force will need a job.  In other words, the economy will need to create approximately 1,000 net new jobs each month to maintain the current unemployment rate.

 

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Defining School Success in Ohio

By: Geoff Zimmerman

There has been a lot of attention recently on school performance and the school rating system in Ohio.  Ohio schools and districts can be classified in one of six rating categories: Excellent with Distinction, Excellent, Effective, Continuous Improvement, Academic Watch, and Academic Emergency.  These categories are based on three factors: performance indicators, performance index, and value added.

In this post, we’ll take a closer look at data for two of the three factors that make up Ohio school rating: performance index and value added.

 

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